This is the first time we’ve seen Romney take the lead in the electoral college at RealClearPolitics. The governor has also opened up a 7 point lead in the national Gallup daily tracking poll among likely voters and seems to be picking up huge momo.
No political statement and you know our view on how a definitive Romney victory affects the market,
No political statement here. We just think the equity market ramps hard into a Romney victory. After all, to paraphrase Keynes, it’s not who we think is the best looking candidate is in this beauty contest, we’re just trying to anticipate what average opinion expects the average opinion thinks of both candidates. Got it?
We also recognize the margin of error in the polling data and it may just be statistical noise. We do believe the enthusiasm levels are lower in the Obama camp, however, and the polls may be over estimating the President’s support.
One note of caution. We have a growing sense there is about a 30% probability that President Obama wins the electoral college, i.e., presidency, and Romney wins the popular vote. In terms of political and market stability — a total disaster. Strap yourself in.
Finally, we believe with most the outcome of the election all comes down to……………..
(click here if chart and video are not observable)