Our Quick Analysis of the U.S. Presidential Election

Why did everyone miss it?

  1. Polls and pundits missed it due to “Bradley Effect” — “The Bradley effect (less commonly known as the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.”

Many people were ashamed to admit publicly and to pollsters they would vote for Trump partly due, we believe, because of the media elite opinion was so adamantly opposed to Trump.

  1. Latino vote meme was over hyped, punto!   Though it mattered in popular vote, the Latino population is mainly concentrated in California Washington, and Texas.  Since these states almost always vote blue and red, respectively, the marginal Latino vote didn’t matter that much.   The other states with large Latino populations where it did have an effect were New Mexico, Nevada and Florida (see map below).   Interestingly, in Los Angeles,  where Latinos are fast becoming, if not already,  the majority Hillary won by over one million votes,  which is more than her lead in the popular vote.  So,  one city and mainly Latinos gave her the popular vote.   One reason not to support popular vote, in our opinion, given our current Presidential and bicameral Legislative system, where one city could decide an election.   The Senate also gives equal power to each state regardless of population.  Vermont and Montana, for example,  have populations of around 500k,  about the same size of the relatively small county we live in California,  yet is represented by two Senators,  the same as California with a population of around 40 million.

According to the exit polls — a rough measure of turnout at best — Latinos accounted for 11 percent of the votes cast Tuesday the same as 2012. If those numbers hold, there was little or no Trump effect, and however much the number of Latino votes increased was just a result of demography. 

The national exit polls show that Mrs. Clinton drew 65 percent of the Latino vote compared with 29 percent for Mr. Trump. That is a landslide by any measure, and it is about the same margin in the exit polls for 2008 (67 percent vs. 31 percent). The disappointment sets in when you compare the outcome to 2012. President Barack Obama took 71 percent of the Latino vote in the exit polls that year compared with 27 percent for Mitt Romney.  – NY Times,  Nov 9.

Trumpism, mainly anti-globalization and anti-immigration is a worldwide phenomena, what the Economist magazine calls, “The march of Europe’s little Trumps.”

It is also sweeping through Europe.   Not only, Brexit, but all throughout Europe.  And it is mainly a generational divide.  Germany has oldest population in world, tied with Japan, but Japan has no immigrants.

Hard nationalist and xenophobic politicians across Europe are gaining popularity as sections of their society become afraid and angry over immigration. The Economist calls it “The march of Europe’s little Trumps.”

Hungary has probably been the best example. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s vehemently anti-immigrant rhetoric, his country’s border fence with Serbia, as well as his pandering to the far-right Jobbik party has long caused concern in Europe. Among Hungarians, however, Orban’s approval has grown.

More recently, Poland’s new right-wing government — though not radical — pledges it will crack down on immigration. Also, thanks to its conservative Catholic stance, it announced it’s cutting state funding for in vitro fertilization.

In Scandinavia, support for the far-right Sweden Democrats party has shot up, while the Danish People’s Party took second place in last June’s elections.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel just made TIME‘s “Person of the Year” for “viewing the refugees as victims to be rescued rather than invaders to be repelled.” But even Germany, which has been at pains to keep far-right groups sidelined, hasn’t been able to escape the trend. Case in point: the vocal anti-Islamic Pegida movement, which staged major demonstrations earlier this year. Some observers say the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is the country’s third most popular party.  – USA Today, December 16, 2015

What next?

On December 4th Italy holds a referendum on Prime Minister’s Matteo Renzi’s economic reforms.  It is now widely viewed as another Brexit type referendum.

With only weeks to go before voters cast their ballots, Renzi is now doing everything he can to avoid a ‘Brexit’ style defeat —. Italian populists and right-wing parties are already exploiting to their advantage Trump’s unexpected presidential victory, saying it has lowered Renzi’s chances of referendum success making him bound to be the next “domino” to fall in post-Brexit Europe.  – Time, November 17, 2016

If Italy votes against the Prime Minister, instability could ensue as the global markets view that Italy will exit the Eurozone,  which is much more severe than a Brexit, where the UK is not part of the Euro currency.

Next up will be the French elections.   The second round of elections will be on May 7th, where Marine Le Pen, the far right nationalist, anti- Euro, anti-globalist and anti-immigrant who has threatened to leave Europe, is widely expected to make it to the run off.

Berlin (AFP) – French Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned Thursday that far-right leader Marine Le Pen had a chance of winning next year’s presidential election, boosted by the momentum of Donald Trump’s shock victory in the United States.

“It’s possible,” Valls said in response to a question at an economic conference in Berlin on whether the candidate of France’s anti-immigration National Front could win in light of the US upset.  – Yahoo, November 16, 2016

If Le Pen wins, BID ADIEU to the European experiment and will usher in massive global economic instability.   Could be Trump’s first real test of leadership and why it is important he appoints top notch cabinet and advisors.  Not looking good, thus far.

hispanic-population(click here if picture is not available)

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