Tag Archives: Monetary Policy

BFTP: How to Become a Trillionaire And Other Thoughts

BTFP:  Blast From The Past Time to repost our piece from January 2017, almost two weeks before the Trump administration took power. We hit the big topics back then which are now making headlines today:  1)  Modern Monetary Theory;  2)  … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count

Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading

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How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing

Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading

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Diagnosing What Ails The Market

My father-in-law died of rectal melanoma, a disease so rare his doctors didn’t even know it existed.  He was diagnosed with having a rectal fissure.   He lived with some discomfort until I called him one night.  Slurring his words, he … Continue reading

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The S&P Levels You Need To Know

Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500.   In honor of George H.W. and George W.?  Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading

Posted in China, Equities, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments

Mr. Market Goes Full Powell-Wow Over Fed Chair’s Cave

He caved.  At least in rhetoric. Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy‑‑that is, neither speeding up nor slowing … Continue reading

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FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco

The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change,  remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

QOTD: Slouching Toward A Banana Republic

Could it be the markets are instead revolting against President Trump’s fiscal profligacy, and beginning to price in a potential debt crisis/major interest rate spike?   Just askin’. “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

ECB to end stimulus programme later this year

ECB President Mario Draghi admitted the eurozone recovery has slowed and kept record low interest rates unchanged… READ MORE : http://www.euronews.com/2018/06/14/ec…

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QE And The Laurel vs. Yanny Distortion

Interesting clip from Wired,  interviewing  a neuroscientist explaining how people get the sound Laurel and Yanny name so different. The interview is profound if you take the principles and apply them to the markets.  It’s all about reading the correct … Continue reading

Posted in Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments