Tag Archives: Monetary Policy

Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?

Posted on July 31, 2019 by

Gravity.  Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up.  If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

BFTP: How to Become a Trillionaire And Other Thoughts

Posted on March 12, 2019 by

BTFP:  Blast From The Past Time to repost our piece from January 2017, almost two weeks before the Trump administration took power. We hit the big topics back then which are now making headlines today:  1)  Modern Monetary Theory;  2)  … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count

Posted on January 29, 2019 by

Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading →

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How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing

Posted on January 29, 2019 by

Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading →

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Diagnosing What Ails The Market

Posted on December 17, 2018 by

My father-in-law died of rectal melanoma, a disease so rare his doctors didn’t even know it existed.  He was diagnosed with having a rectal fissure.   He lived with some discomfort until I called him one night.  Slurring his words, he … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The S&P Levels You Need To Know

Posted on December 3, 2018 by

Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500.   In honor of George H.W. and George W.?  Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Equities, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments

Mr. Market Goes Full Powell-Wow Over Fed Chair’s Cave

Posted on November 29, 2018 by

He caved.  At least in rhetoric. Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy‑‑that is, neither speeding up nor slowing … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco

Posted on October 15, 2018 by

The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change,  remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading →

Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

QOTD: Slouching Toward A Banana Republic

Posted on October 10, 2018 by

Could it be the markets are instead revolting against President Trump’s fiscal profligacy, and beginning to price in a potential debt crisis/major interest rate spike?   Just askin’. “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

ECB to end stimulus programme later this year

Posted on June 14, 2018 by

ECB President Mario Draghi admitted the eurozone recovery has slowed and kept record low interest rates unchanged… READ MORE : http://www.euronews.com/2018/06/14/ec…

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