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Tag Archives: Monetary Policy
Memo to Wall Street: The Monetary Cavalry Ain’t Coming
For the past 25 years, markets have depended on central banks to bail them out because of the delusion that “inflation had been vanquished to the dustbin of history.” Even after the Jay Powell smackdown, we still hear talk of … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged ECB, Fed, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Real Fed Funds
16 Comments
How The U.S. Made Inflation Worse
Not a bad primer video from CNBC on the Fed’s policy mistakes, which we all are now, literally, paying for. I would add that monetary policy is a black box, mainly because we can’t define the money supply, much less … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy
Tagged Fed mistake, Inflation, Monetary Policy
21 Comments
History Is Not On Inflation’s (or the Fed’s) Side
CPI inflation hit 9.1 percent in June. The FinMedia is quick to point out it was “the highest level in more than forty years,” We doubt you will hear (at least from them) any context or the rest of the … Continue reading
Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Fed, Inflation, Monetary Policy
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Why This QE Is Different In One Chart
Robin Hood traders don’t bother reading. The latest round of central bank balance sheet expansion, which will reaccelerate soon as Biden’s COVID bill is passed, needs some context. By the way, we did some rough approximations late last night and … Continue reading
Markets Have Jumped The Shark
Welcome to the Twilight Zone. Nothing seems real anymore — not the economy, not the markets, not the politics — and it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the difference between what is and what isn’t. It truly feels the economy, … Continue reading
The Magical Monetary Policy Mystery Tour
Wow! Just heard a so-called “banking expert” say that the Fed was reducing reserves on their balance sheet during quantitative tightening (QT), which has led to the current chaos in the overnight repo market. Not entirely true. Asymmetric Libalibity Balance … Continue reading
Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?
Gravity. Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up. If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading
BFTP: How to Become a Trillionaire And Other Thoughts
BTFP: Blast From The Past Time to repost our piece from January 2017, almost two weeks before the Trump administration took power. We hit the big topics back then which are now making headlines today: 1) Modern Monetary Theory; 2) … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Debt, dollar, Hyperinflation, Inflation, Monetary Policy
1 Comment
Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count
Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Balance Sheet, Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy
1 Comment
How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing
Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading
Global Macro Monitor 