Tag Archives: Monetary Policy

Why This QE Is Different In One Chart

Robin Hood traders don’t bother reading. The latest round of central bank balance sheet expansion, which will reaccelerate soon as Biden’s COVID bill is passed, needs some context. By the way, we did some rough approximations late last night and … Continue reading

Posted in Monetary Policy | Tagged | 3 Comments

Markets Have Jumped The Shark

Welcome to the Twilight Zone.    Nothing seems real anymore — not the economy, not the markets, not the politics — and it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the difference between what is and what isn’t.  It truly feels the economy, … Continue reading

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Posted in Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 18 Comments

The Magical Monetary Policy Mystery Tour

Wow!  Just heard a so-called “banking expert” say that the Fed was reducing reserves on their balance sheet during quantitative tightening (QT), which has led to the current chaos in the overnight repo market.   Not entirely true. Asymmetric Libalibity Balance … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?

Gravity.  Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up.  If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

BFTP: How to Become a Trillionaire And Other Thoughts

BTFP:  Blast From The Past Time to repost our piece from January 2017, almost two weeks before the Trump administration took power. We hit the big topics back then which are now making headlines today:  1)  Modern Monetary Theory;  2)  … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count

Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing

Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading

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Diagnosing What Ails The Market

My father-in-law died of rectal melanoma, a disease so rare his doctors didn’t even know it existed.  He was diagnosed with having a rectal fissure.   He lived with some discomfort until I called him one night.  Slurring his words, he … Continue reading

Posted in Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The S&P Levels You Need To Know

Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500.   In honor of George H.W. and George W.?  Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading

Posted in China, Equities, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments

Mr. Market Goes Full Powell-Wow Over Fed Chair’s Cave

He caved.  At least in rhetoric. Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy‑‑that is, neither speeding up nor slowing … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 2 Comments