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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Tag Archives: Monetary Policy
Markets Have Jumped The Shark
Welcome to the Twilight Zone. Nothing seems real anymore — not the economy, not the markets, not the politics — and it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the difference between what is and what isn’t. It truly feels the economy, … Continue reading
The Magical Monetary Policy Mystery Tour
Wow! Just heard a so-called “banking expert” say that the Fed was reducing reserves on their balance sheet during quantitative tightening (QT), which has led to the current chaos in the overnight repo market. Not entirely true. Asymmetric Libalibity Balance … Continue reading
Why Did Stocks Fall After Rate Cut?
Gravity. Stock prices are waaay too high. Stocks went down not because the Fed messed up. If they needed to cut 50 bps and signal more to come because of coming economic weakness, what in heavens name were stocks doing … Continue reading
BFTP: How to Become a Trillionaire And Other Thoughts
BTFP: Blast From The Past Time to repost our piece from January 2017, almost two weeks before the Trump administration took power. We hit the big topics back then which are now making headlines today: 1) Modern Monetary Theory; 2) … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Debt, dollar, Hyperinflation, Inflation, Monetary Policy
1 Comment
Fed’s Failure To Communicate, Markets’ Failure To Count
Not to beat a dead horse but the following example just reinforces our last post. What the market perceives, Investors who are hoping the Federal Reserve signals a change or adjustment in its balance sheet policy on Wednesday are likely … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Balance Sheet, Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy
1 Comment
How Chair Powell Could Spark A Massive Rally By Doing Nothing
Summary The market is irrationally obsessed with the “$600 billion” annual roll-off in the Fed’s balance sheet The actual reduction in the balance sheet will be much smaller and is determined by the profile of monthly Treasury and MBS securities … Continue reading
Diagnosing What Ails The Market
My father-in-law died of rectal melanoma, a disease so rare his doctors didn’t even know it existed. He was diagnosed with having a rectal fissure. He lived with some discomfort until I called him one night. Slurring his words, he … Continue reading
Posted in Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Stock market correction
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The S&P Levels You Need To Know
Interesting double-top, double bottom W forming in the S&P500. In honor of George H.W. and George W.? Hmmm…… The futures were rejected right at key resistance in overnight trading, making a high at 2814.0 during in early morning pre-trading and … Continue reading
Mr. Market Goes Full Powell-Wow Over Fed Chair’s Cave
He caved. At least in rhetoric. Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy‑‑that is, neither speeding up nor slowing … Continue reading
Posted in Equities, Monetary Policy
Tagged Chairman Jay Powell, Interest rates, Monetary Policy
2 Comments
FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco
The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change, remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading
Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized
Tagged Fed, Monetary Policy, Real Fed Funds Rate
8 Comments
