Monthly Archives: July 2011

The Armageddon Trade

Here are the four markets we do not want to see large concurrent sustained moves in the direction as illustrated. (click here if picture is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Gold, Politics, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , , | 8 Comments

Week in Review: The Realpolitik of Debt

The S&P500 closed Friday near the top of its trading range and just a little more than 1 percent below its  post crash closing high of 1361.22 on the back of some decent earnings — and an Apple blowout — … Continue reading

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Global Trend Indicators

(click here if tables are not observable)

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The Weekend Read: Europe Gives Birth to the “Trichet Bond”

As explained in the Financing Offer, investors will be offered four new instruments in addition to the opportunity to participate in a debt buyback program to be established by the Greek government in consultation with the official sector. The instruments … Continue reading

Posted in The Weekend Read | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Analysis of Greece’s “Trichet Plan” Restructuring

We’ve done some quick analysis of Greece’s commercial bank “Trichet Plan” restructuring announced late last night (click here for term sheet) by the Institute of International Finance (IIF).   The IIF is a consortium of the world’s largest banks. Interestingly, the … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Greece’s Brady Plan, Finally

The International Institute of Finance, a consortium of the largest global banks,  just released a  term sheet for a Brady-type Plan for Greece. The menu of options include Par and Discount Bonds, with principal collateral,  and a buyback option.  The … Continue reading

Posted in Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Apple Nation: Key Metrics as a Country GDP

In prior posts we’ve compared Apple’s market cap and cash position to country GDPs.  Here is our update, which also includes annualized revenue and profits from the recent earnings release. Apple’s market cap is now larger than all three European … Continue reading

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European Banks Rockin’………….

Take a look at Germany’s Commerzbank and Barclays of the UK.   Both of their U.S. ADRs are up around 10 percent today.    Optimism over a Marshall Plan for Greece is helping the European banks and the Euro today.  The … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Chart of the Day: Ireland’s Silent Bank Run

We found this great chart posted over at New N Economics by Rebecca Wilder.  She points out the non-financial corporates have been fleeing Irish banks since 2007 and households 2010 to the tune of 14 percent of GDP.    Irish … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Nonlinear thinking: New Developments in Electric Cars

Time’s Money land blog reports the following changes in the world of electric cars: 1)  Chevy Volt’s been very successful … at selling the Chevy Cruze. Fortune reportsthat in the same way drivers have been drawn to Chevy dealers to … Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Nonlinear Thinking, Technology | Tagged , | 1 Comment