Massive Lavender Wave Coming In November

We believe there will be a massive “lavender wave,” in the November midterms.  Lavender is the color combination of pink and blue.

…In elections, women are also more likely to vote in higher numbers and have done so for decades.  Women have cast between four and seven million more votes than men in recent elections.

…Do the math, folks.  Listen to the water cooler talk, read the cartoons.
– GMM, Aug 5th

CNN is out with the most recent generic ballot poll, which will cause a sigh of relief in the Democratic Party.

Washington (CNN) – Four weeks out from Election Day, Democrats remain well ahead of Republicans in a generic ballot matchup, with 54% of likely voters saying they support the Democrat in their district and 41% backing a Republican, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That’s also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker until 2011. – CNN

That is one big gender deficit for Republicans to make up in the next month.

The political arithmetic seems pretty simple:   more women vote;  women are more likely to vote, and women favor Democrats in the generic ballot by a yuuuuuge margin.

Dems Likely To Pick-up 27-47 House Seats

Our prediction is based, not on our personal politics, but on inference from the polling data, history, and simple factor models.   Recall, we predicted Trump would win the electoral college and Clinton, the popular vote, on the eve of the 2016 election.

Presidential Favorability Ratings And House Seats Gained/Loss

The midterm is almost always a referendum on the sitting president.  Moreover, voters are more likely to come out in November to say “f-you” than “thank you”, Mr. President.

The following plots Gallup’s presidential approval ratings a little over 600 days into a first-term presidency with the net seats gained by the party in the White House.

Note the positive relationship with approval ratings and House seat gains.   The 2002 midterm is the only modern midterm election of a first-term president, which resulted in a net gain of House seats.

The model, with a decent .64 R-squared.  predicts the Republicans are set to lose 47 House seats in November.  Yes, we get it, small data set.

Crude Oil Price-Midterm Model 

In our September 25th post, Rising Oil Prices And Midterm Elections, we laid out a simple prediction model based on crude oil prices and change in House seats during the midterm elections.

Gas prices are highly correlated with crude oil, and rising gas prices are politically toxic.

Voters are feeling the pinch at the pump with gas prices up almost 20 percent year-on-year.

The simple oil price model now predicts the Republicans are set to lose 27 House seats.

Upshot

We suspect the difference between a Lavender Tsunami and a narrow Democratic victory taking back the House will depend on if millennial women show up to vote in November.  Place your bets on how the recent SCOTUS hearings will motivate them either way.

Of course, the midterm elections will be determined by more than just the popularity of the president at the time or the 21-month increase in crude and gas prices.   It’s better than wishful thinking, however,  or putting a wet finger to the air,  and sure beats depending on a warm feeling in our tummy.    Stay tuned.