Here’s a GMM chart blast from the past.
Still very relevant, especially as the government is considering reducing the gas tax to reduce inflation. Not a lot of blood in that turnip and the focus should be on short-term energy policy to bring the price of oil down.
Also note refiners have relatively small and thin margins- think crack spread.
In most cases, oil prices drive the price of gasoline.
The Politics Of Gas Prices
Not certain of the following relationship, could be real, could be spurious. The politics of the past may not be the politics of the future.
Global Macro Monitor 
The price of a barrel of oil in 1999/2000 was $12 when the dot com bubble was about to burst. Of course one had nothing to do with the other or butterflies in China. But there’s a saying that the money has to go somewhere, from one place to another, that also appreares to track.