Yearly Archives: 2023

The Treasury released the latest budget data earlier today, which shows the 12-month rolling deficit at $2.3 trillion or 8.4 percent of GDP.  We are confused as to how many are worried about the deficit coming in at 6 percent … Continue reading →

COTD = Chart of the Day Stunning demographic data from Japan.  The country’s bear market in babies almost matches its 30-year plus bear market in stocks, where the Nikkei 225 is still 17 percent below its December 29, 1989 price … Continue reading →

They will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. – Book of Isaiah

The global manufacturing sector remained mired in contraction at the start of the second half of the year. July saw output decline further as the downturn in new order intakes was extended to a thirteenth consecutive month. Manufacturing production decreased … Continue reading →

QOTD = Quote of the Day We’ve been sounding the alarm every month and were definitely a lone wolf. Deficits don’t matter…until they do. – GMM, May ‘23

Yes.  And it’s significant and intuitive.  The table analyzes daily returns for the S&P500 since 1950 and illustrates the first of the month has returned on average 17.7 bps.  That is 14 bps more than the daily average of 3.5 … Continue reading →