The S&P500 closed today at a key support level, right on its upward trend line and just a few points under its 50-day moving average. The S&P is up 14.2 percent for the year. Critical support is 5390-5400, which, if it breaks, makes a 10 percent correction down to 5100 increasingly likely.  That said, forecasting short-term moves in the stock market is a mug’s game.  We just can’t help ourselves.