The “Trump bump” following the recent election contrasts sharply with 2016. In 2016, Trump’s unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton surprised markets, leading to a significant rally as investors bet on policies like tax cuts and deregulation. This surge reflected the element of surprise and “animal spirits.” However, the 2024 race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris was closely contested, with betting markets favoring a Trump win before Election Day. As a result, markets had largely priced in his victory, muting post-election gains. This context underscores how pre-election expectations can temper market reactions, reducing the dramatic movements seen in 2016. Context, folks.