Happy Jackie Robinson Day!  What a great American. 

The rebound in the S&P 500 has thus far stalled at a key technical level—specifically the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current correction from the recent highs, which stands at 5491.24. Today’s intraday high of 5450.41 failed to surpass the April 9th rebound peak of 5481.34, reinforcing the significance of the 5450–5500 zone as a formidable resistance range.

This area marks the midpoint of the decline and is closely watched by institutional players. A sustained break above this level would shift momentum in favor of the bulls; however, until then, it serves as a technical ceiling capping rallies.

From a trading perspective, market conditions have become increasingly erratic, bordering on untradable for directional players. Initiating short positions in this range carries elevated risk, as any unexpected de-escalation in U.S.-China tensions or a surprise tariff relief headline could ignite a sharp short-covering rally. Volatility remains headline-driven, and risk-reward is skewed to binary geopolitical outcomes.

The S&P 500 will likely remain range-bound between 5200 and 5500 in the near term as market participants await more definitive indications of the economic impact stemming from current policy decisions. In our view, as signs of strain begin to emerge—whether through softening macro data, downward earnings revisions, or tightening financial conditions—the index will face renewed selling pressure. This will send the index for a retest of the April 7th low, with an elevated risk it will not hold.

Stay frosty, folks.