From Portugal to Turkey: A Look at the Diverging Economic Fortunes of 2025

A great piece from The Economist ranking the performance of global economies.  Here is a concise summary

Despite fears of a trade-war-induced recession, the global economy proved resilient in 2025. With global GDP growth steady at 3% and unemployment remaining low, the primary concern shifted toward sticky inflation, which remains above the 2% target across the OECD.

Top Performers and Surprises

The star of the year is Portugal, which combined robust GDP growth with low inflation and a thriving stock market. Southern Europe’s streak continues, as Spain and Greece also ranked near the top. Israel saw the world’s best stock market returns, driven by its banking sector, while Ireland’s growth remained spectacular, though distorted by multinational accounting.

Regional Divergence

  • The Laggards: Northern European nations like Estonia, Finland, and Slovakia struggled.

  • The Giants: The United States landed in the middle, hindered by higher inflation despite a respectable job market.

  • Deflation Risks: Countries like Sweden faced the opposite problem—anaemic inflation, which raises concerns about long-term spending and debt burdens.

Ultimately, 2025 favored economies that managed to balance tourism and tax incentives against the pressures of high interest rates and global trade friction.

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