French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

To assess Ms Le Pen’s chance of victory, The Economist has compiled current and historic French presidential polls, and used them to build a statistical prediction model. We find that if the first round were held today, Ms Le Pen would receive 26.1% of the vote. The runners-up, jostling for a place in the runoff, would be Mr Macron at 20% and Mr Fillon at 19.5%.

..However, far more difficult terrain awaits the would-be populist president in the second round. Voters of every political allegiance are telling pollsters they would band together to stymie her bid, much as they did when Ms Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, reached the 2002 run-off. Surveys of head-to-head voting intentions against her likeliest opponents suggest she would need to surmount daunting deficits—15 percentage points if she faces Mr Fillon, and a thumping 21 points versus Mr Macron. If run-off polling remains as reliable as it has been in previous French elections, Ms Le Pen’s implied chances of becoming president rest under 5%.  – Economist


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