The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM

“We won the trade war.”  The market narrative du jour.  Nonsense.

But wait!  The Shanghai was up triple the S&P today.  Doesn’t that mean China won the trade war?

Professor Jeremy Siegel said today a protracted trade war only 10 percent priced.

A trade war is another factor for stocks, but the market sees only a 10 percent probability of that happening, he added.

“If it heats up, wow. That’s a lot of downside.”  – Jeremy Siegel

As my 2-year old daughter used say while cupping her ears as the saws were buzzing and nails being hammered during our remodel a few years back,  “Noise, daddy.”

Swans lathered up with the market.

Will the U.K. exit the BREXIT after England wins the World Cup?  We hope so on both.

The 2,792 level on the S&P beckons and the 2,792-2,802 range is yuuuuge.