Interesting feedback from a GMM reader about our recent post on the silent rise of Germany’s Green Party, As Everyone Looks Right, Germany Is Swinging Left,
“That is interesting. This article alone makes my subscription worth it. Not a WORD of this in the press and Die Grüner is at 24%! That’s a sneaky left hook.” – GMM reader
We like it. Keep those comments, letters, and emails coming.
Check out how the Alternative for Germany (AfD) peaked this summer and have moved back to 13 percent support, while the Greens have doubled their support since the beginning of the year.
We don’t know if this would translate into more Green seats in the Bundestag if federal elections were held today, as we are not German political analysts. Nevertheless, it is certainly interesting and worth keeping on your radar.
U.S. Midterms
How you been listening to the American political pundits recently? We have never seen so many waffles since our last visit to the IHOP.
Even Nate Silver at 538, who has the Dems at an 87 percent probability of taking the House back is hedging. We’ll take a trade with an 87 percent probability any day, anytime. Of course, nothing is ever certain.
Fat tails? Yes.
Life is a game of odds.
No doubt the pundits are still shell-shocked from the 2016 election, and the Disrupter in Chief has fattened the tails; that is he is a non-normal president, which may translate into a non-normal distribution, but come on, man!
Lavender Wave
We stand by our prediction of a Lavender Wave.
After looking at the rise of the Greens in Germany, coupled with the surprises that took place in the Democratic primaries, particular the race for the Georgia and Florida governorships, we are beginning to wonder if the U.S. body politic will cold-cock the pundits, once again. This time with a “sneaky left hook” tomorrow.
If Beto, Andrew Gillum, and Stacey Abrams all win tomorrow, a distinct possibility, begin the KO count.
Please don’t say we didn’t warn you back in February.
Sir, Your blog posts are generally interesting and worth a few moments each day. Except for yesterday’s and today’s offerings, which strayed too far into political territory. 1. Yesterday, you informed me – and others who share my deep skepticism towards the Davos crowd – that I am apparently anti-semitic because I take exception to the behaviour of Blankfein, Soros, and Yellen and because I continue to use the word ‘globalist’ in accordance with its original meaning. Perhaps you should throw misogyny into the pot as well, given my distaste for Mrs. Clinton’s murderous foreign policy and the massive corruption alleged to surround her family foundation. 2. Your reporting of poll results showing the advance of the Green Party in Germany fails to reference the deeply conflicted source. Forsa has for over a decade stood accused of doctoring poll results, originally to advance the interests of the SPD and in recent years to emphasise the failure of their ‘reformist’ wing. I have no idea whether the reported results come close to the ‘truth’ or not, but it is clear that the principals of Forsa are not supportive of the current coalition and have an interest in stirring alarm amongst the party base in order to move them left to counteract the undoubted rise of the Greens. Politics – particularly other people’s politics – can be a contentious area in which to tread when one’s expertise lies elsewhere. Steve Holloway.
5. Nov 2018 18:01 by comment-reply@wordpress.com :
> > > macromon posted: “Interesting feedback from a GMM reader about our recent post on the silent rise of Germany’s Green Party, As Everyone Looks Right, Germany Is Swinging Left,”That is interesting. This article alone makes my subscription worth it. Not a WORD of this in th” > > >
Steve, Thanks for comments though I disagree with most of your points. Your implying that all anti-globalists are anti-Semitic, and implicating yourself. That is is false. Second, are you denying the rise of anti-Semitism, which, in part, is stoked by political rhetoric. Never forget, Squirrel Hill. Third, we cite another source, a London School of Economic blog, on the rise of the Green Party. See here:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/09/11/the-silent-rise-of-germanys-green-party/
Thanks for the feedback.
Some more references on the rise of the Greens:
But the Green surge is not limited to Bavaria. In last year’s general election, the party won around 9 percent of the vote. Now, multiple surveys show the Greens polling at 15-17 percent nationally, catching up with or even overtaking the SPD.
Green leaders say that voters appreciate the party’s clear stance on issues like migration, climate change and European integration.
https://www.politico.eu/article/greens-bavaria-election-germany-the-rise-and-rise-of-bavarias-greens/
Thanks for the shout out! Proud to be a part of your readership. CorkyvL
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