Interesting feedback from a GMM reader about our recent post on the silent rise of Germany’s Green Party, As Everyone Looks Right, Germany Is Swinging Left,
“That is interesting. This article alone makes my subscription worth it. Not a WORD of this in the press and Die Grüner is at 24%! That’s a sneaky left hook.” – GMM reader
We like it. Keep those comments, letters, and emails coming.
Check out how the Alternative for Germany (AfD) peaked this summer and have moved back to 13 percent support, while the Greens have doubled their support since the beginning of the year.
We don’t know if this would translate into more Green seats in the Bundestag if federal elections were held today, as we are not German political analysts. Nevertheless, it is certainly interesting and worth keeping on your radar.
How you been listening to the American political pundits recently? We have never seen so many waffles since our last visit to the IHOP.
Even Nate Silver at 538, who has the Dems at an 87 percent probability of taking the House back is hedging. We’ll take a trade with an 87 percent probability any day, anytime. Of course, nothing is ever certain.
Fat tails? Yes.
Life is a game of odds.
No doubt the pundits are still shell-shocked from the 2016 election, and the Disrupter in Chief has fattened the tails; that is he is a non-normal president, which may translate into a non-normal distribution, but come on, man!
We stand by our prediction of a Lavender Wave.
After looking at the rise of the Greens in Germany, coupled with the surprises that took place in the Democratic primaries, particular the race for the Georgia and Florida governorships, we are beginning to wonder if the U.S. body politic will cold-cock the pundits, once again. This time with a “sneaky left hook” tomorrow.
Please don’t say we didn’t warn you back in February.