I took so much incoming for this part of a post (reposted yesterday) I wrote back in May 2017. People would look at me as I was crazy when I laid out the unlikely scenario, which, I admit, was written mainly for intellectual entertainment for political junkies.
It won’t happen but it’s hard to believe it is now trending on Twitter after President Trump appeared to throw Mike Pence under the bus today, which led to the following tweet by Harvard Law Prof, Lawrence Tribe.
The 6 Sigma Event: President Pelosi in 2019
Finally, you know we like to think outside the box here at the Global Macro Monitor and live in the fat tails.
Contemplate this 6 sigma scenario:
Bad news for Trump continues to leak out and staffers and acquaintances are indicted all through the rest of 2017 and 2018. The Democrats take the House and Senate in a landslide in November 2018.
Impeachment charges are brought both against President Trump and Vice President Pence, say, as a co-conspirator on obstruction of justice charges in the firing of James Comey.
It’s 2019 and the Dems control the House and the Senate with comfortable majorities.
The House impeaches the President and Vice President. The Senate convicts both.
Who is next in line to assume the Presidency? The Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi?
The probability? Six sigma or about 2 * 10^-9 or two in a billion. Most likely, even much, much lower.