The cash S&P 500 has regained 37.6 percent of its 311.28-point decline from the high on April 1st. The index closed today slightly below a critical 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. If the futures maintain their bump in after-hours, a reaction to Tesla’s earnings announcement, this level will be taken tomorrow morning.

Nobody knows the future; the best approach for us is to use the analysis of historical data and past levels as a guide to navigate an uncertain and foggy future.

Given the current market narrative of higher for longer, we maintain our view that the S&P 500 is destined for its 200-day moving average of around 4,680.43 before this downdraft concludes.   We will reassess if the cash index takes out the .50 Fib level at 5119.44.  

Stay frosty, folks.