Author Archives: macromon

We hear a lot of chatter these days about how the money supply, as defined by M2, is now contracting at an unprecedented rate.  We don’t put much stock in the monetary aggregates as the functional term, and variable “money” … Continue reading →

All kinds of technical reasons to be bullish.  As we noted Friday, watch for a break out above the 4100.96, the December high, and the top of the trading range. .  The index traded almost to its key .50 fib … Continue reading →

QOTD = Quote of the Day Oh, dear!  I wonder if the FOMC is looking at the deflationary bust in virtual real estate?  Will Jay Powell mention it in his presser today? Do you think real estate in the metaverse … Continue reading →

The following chart suggests the stock market still has an outsized influence on the economy.  In theory, the market capitalization to GDP ratio should be a mean reverting time series.   We don’t know for certain, but we suspect there is … Continue reading →

QOTD = Quote of the Day What a great alt-definition of George Soros’ Reflexivity

U.S. GDP Surprises To Upside, Big Inventory Build Global Sector PMIs & Margin Pressures Global Shipping Costs Shrinking Labor Forces Strong Labor Markets India Rising China’s Excess Savings Firepower China’s Recovery Driving Base Metals Lithium Mining Peak Gasoline Demand U.S. … Continue reading →

QOTD: Quote of the Day South Korea faces an existential crisis with a plunging birth rate.  The country has the lowest fertility rate in the world, reaching the “dead cross,” when deaths outnumbered births, in 2020,  a decade earlier than expected. … Continue reading →