Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Is the Euro Driving the S&P500?

Posted on October 22, 2011 by macromon

In case you haven’t noticed recently the Euro and S&P500 seem to be moving together almost tick for tick.   Here are the daily moves in futures over the past month.  Makes you think they’re both dancing to the same … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Equities, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Europe’s Undercapitalized Banks

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

We’ve posted several pieces recently about Europe’s over banked and undercapitalized financial system.   The markets have pounded European bank equities this year and forced the eurozone political leaders to cobble together a bank recapitalization plan, which we all wait for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Euro, General Interest, Geopolitical, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Industrial Commodities Swan Diving

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

Take a look at  copper,  lumber, and rubber.   Down big.   What does it mean?   No doubt a reflection of a slowing global economy and confirms the contracting manufacturing PMIs in many of the emerging economies.   Hard landing in China?   Don’t … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Rivets Starting to Pop in Greece

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

The FT reports, Greece should get its next €8bn in international aid, but its economic outlook is deteriorating so rapidly that a second bail-out plan agreed just three months ago is no longer adequate to keep Athens afloat, international lenders … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Quote of the Day: Sarkozy’s Warning

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

If there isn’t a solution by Sunday, everything is going to collapse – French president Nicolas Sarkozy

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Occupy Harvard, Columbia, & Berkeley

Posted on October 19, 2011 by macromon

Here’s a piece we posted last November which has relevance to those who are camped out in lower Manhattan and their Occupy Wall Street offshoots around the country and world.  We’ve changed the source of the video as the old … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Geopolitical, Housing, Politics | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

U.S. Public Debt: Going Greek

Posted on October 18, 2011 by macromon

Here is one chart that may be used in our grandchildren’s economic and political history classes.   The current debt service burden on the national debt (as % of GDP) is as low as it has been in last thirty years.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

NY Times: Greek government’s $38,000 bills for office curtains

Posted on October 17, 2011 by macromon

Today’s NY Times piece on the failure of Greece to cut its bureaucracy is a must read for anyone trying to understand one of the major forces driving global markets.   It also gives context to why Germany and other core … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Germany dampens euro zone crisis hopes

Posted on October 17, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Belgium Waffles w/ Irish Coffee = No Free Brunch

Posted on October 17, 2011 by macromon

Over the weekend we posted a chart illustrating how French bond yields are blowing out.  Zero Hedge posted the following chart today illustrating the Belgium – German yield spread has just hit a new high.  ZH has been spot on … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment