Category Archives: Euro

Europe’s Big Fail…

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

One lesson we have learned during the financial crisis is that a country’s banking system is an indirect liability of the sovereign.  That is, unless the government is willing to allow banks to fail and let the domestic financial sector … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Rollover Risk: Moody’s Warns on Spain

Posted on December 15, 2010 by macromon

“Rollover risk” will be a major theme in 2011 and Moody’s is getting an early start.  Bloomberg writes, Spain had its Aa1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Argentina – “Cookie Cutter” for the European Periphery?

Posted on December 13, 2010 by macromon

“I would not say that Mexico is going to be a cookie cutter for others.” – William Rhodes, Citibank 1989 These were the words of the chairman of Mexico’s Bank Advisory Committee in 1989, just after the country and its … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: ECB Bond Purchases

Posted on December 6, 2010 by macromon

They’ve only just begun…

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Charts, Credit, Currency, Economics, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Merkel Warned EU Germany Could Leave the Euro

Posted on December 4, 2010 by macromon

The slow motion fracturing of the Eurozone continues as revelations surfaced that German chancellor, Angela Merkel warned the EU her country could abandon the euro.  The Guradian reports the threat took place at the EU Summit in Brussels at the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Rogoff on Euro Crisis: “Endgame…a wave of debt writedowns”

Posted on December 2, 2010 by macromon

One of the best pieces we’ve seen on Europe’s debt crisis is Kenneth Rogoff’s, The Euro at Mid-Crisis, posted today over at Project Syndicate.  He doesn’t hold back in criticizing how policymakers, excluding Angela Merkel,  are deluding themselves and in … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Economies of Scale: Eurozone vs American States

Posted on December 1, 2010 by macromon

Great graphic from the Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics comparing the size of Eurozone economies to those of selected American states.  Here’s their intro, To get a sense of scale, Real Time Economics compared the 2009 output of goods … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Euro, Policy | Tagged , | Leave a comment

ECB About to PIIG Out on Bonds. Gold to the Moon.

Posted on November 30, 2010 by macromon

Just a few short weeks after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble criticized U.S. monetary policy with his “with all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless” statement, the FT reports the ECB is contemplating expanding its sovereign bond purchase program.  That … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Where is Gold Headed?

Posted on November 30, 2010 by macromon

In 1996, we visited the Bulgarian central bank at a time when the country was experiencing economic turmoil and a loss of confidence that the government could rollover its maturing debt.  After a long discussion on the domestic economy and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Euro Trashed!

Posted on November 29, 2010 by macromon

Dennis Gartman (click here for video) said today the Euro has “almost terminal problems”and eventually “breaks apart”  into a Northern Euro and Southern Euro.  The currency broke its 200-day moving average against the dollar and looks headed to a very … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment