Category Archives: Sovereign Risk

Most Important Spread in the World

Posted on October 23, 2011 by macromon

Given the bank recapitalization plan announced over the weekend,  the France national government may be on the hook to help recapitalize and backstop its banking system.  The markets will be full of noise in the next few days and we … Continue reading →

Posted in Credit, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Is the Euro Driving the S&P500?

Posted on October 22, 2011 by macromon

In case you haven’t noticed recently the Euro and S&P500 seem to be moving together almost tick for tick.   Here are the daily moves in futures over the past month.  Makes you think they’re both dancing to the same … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Equities, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Losses expected for holders of Greek debt

Posted on October 22, 2011 by macromon

Do they mean banks need to write down or reserve against their Greek bonds by 60 percent or is it that bondholders will reduce their claims on Greece by 60 percent?   We are not confident that the EU policymakers … Continue reading →

Posted in Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Europe’s Undercapitalized Banks

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

We’ve posted several pieces recently about Europe’s over banked and undercapitalized financial system.   The markets have pounded European bank equities this year and forced the eurozone political leaders to cobble together a bank recapitalization plan, which we all wait for … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Euro, General Interest, Geopolitical, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Quote of the Day: Sarkozy’s Warning

Posted on October 20, 2011 by macromon

If there isn’t a solution by Sunday, everything is going to collapse – French president Nicolas Sarkozy

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

U.S. Public Debt: Going Greek

Posted on October 18, 2011 by macromon

Here is one chart that may be used in our grandchildren’s economic and political history classes.   The current debt service burden on the national debt (as % of GDP) is as low as it has been in last thirty years.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 6 Comments

NY Times: Greek government’s $38,000 bills for office curtains

Posted on October 17, 2011 by macromon

Today’s NY Times piece on the failure of Greece to cut its bureaucracy is a must read for anyone trying to understand one of the major forces driving global markets.   It also gives context to why Germany and other core … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Germany dampens euro zone crisis hopes

Posted on October 17, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Economics, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Belgium Waffles w/ Irish Coffee = No Free Brunch

Posted on October 17, 2011 by macromon

Over the weekend we posted a chart illustrating how French bond yields are blowing out.  Zero Hedge posted the following chart today illustrating the Belgium – German yield spread has just hit a new high.  ZH has been spot on … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Spooky Chart: French with an Irish Brogue

Posted on October 15, 2011 by macromon

Here is the one chart via Reuters that scares us most.   French bond yields relative to 10-year German bonds have been spiking.  The market seems concerned that a large commitment by France to backstop or recapitalize its banking system could … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment