The crude and gold market are certainly trading as if Mubarak will be out before the weekend is over. We heard an oil trader say that if democracy breaks out in Egypt, i.e., Mubarak is forced out, it would be positive for oil as instability would increase throughout the region.
Is the guy joking? Freedom of expression, freedom of press, political participation will release pressure in the repressed powder kegs. The rulers of these countries appear to get it and are moving to make political concessions in order to preempt the chaos and anarchy we are witnessing in Egypt. Isn’t the world better off if the youth in Yemen are marching for democracy rather than joining terrorist groups?
No doubt uncertainty increases if democracy breaks out throughout the region, but we heard the same about the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and even South Africa. Long the “Arab Spring” and puts on crude oil. (click here if charts and video are not observable)