“…our responsibility now is to keep dancing but closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves.” – Ray Dalio, July 6, 2017
(QOTD = Quote of the Day)
“…our responsibility now is to keep dancing but closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves.” – Ray Dalio, July 6, 2017
(QOTD = Quote of the Day)
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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
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Any tightening will surely deleverage the asset bubbles but how fast and for how long will prices deflate is the question. My models suggest deleveraging began after the feds second rate hike . Investors still euphoric over trump policy measures are believing corrections are and will be the norm fro at least til the 3rd year of his presidency. Moving in and out of sectors on dips will see most managers post 15-25 % margins but will leave many in a very “thin-Ice” scenario when and if a Big Shock hits the economy,as it did 2007-8.Keep in mind that it is never one thing that sets the cards to crumble but a seris of events leading up to the “catalist” moment. The lesser events found in government policies are the details that will create a devil of an event. Watch the tea leaves. Timeline:8-12 months