We noticed today someone tweeted an old post from our blog from way back when. It has an excellent graphic of the structure of China’s Communist Party and its leaders that were selected after the last Party Congress in 2012.
Since the once-every-five-years congress begins on October 18th and it is on our market event risk checklist, we thought you’ would be interested in a repost of the excellent graphic. We are expecting a decent pullback in risk assets in October.
Here is what happens at the Party Congress,
The Communist Party constitution requires the Party to hold a national congress every five years. The most recent congress, the 18th, was held in November 2012. At each Congress, delegates elect a new Central Committee in a modestly competitive process: the Party leadership nominates approximately 10% more candidates than available positions. The current Central Committee is composed of 205 full members and 171 alternate members. They include 33 women (8.8% of the full 376-member Central Committee) and 39 ethnic minorities (10.4%). – Congressional Research Service
Since assuming power at the last Party Congress in 2012, President Xi Jinping has consolidated power and risen to one of China’s strongest leaders since Mao.
Here is Barron’s on what to expect,
With the reshuffling formally occurring in October, there is a likelihood that China curtails their lax credit policies in an effort to avoid what some believe could be an epic bubble/bust scenario,” says Ralph Drybrough, co-founder of StratiFi, a portfolio-hedging service for investment advisors.
There is no consensus on the meeting. Credit Suisse analysts, for example, are telling clients that efforts will be made to reassure investors about China’s economic and market stability.
Disagreement makes a market, of course. In anticipation of heightened turbulence, Drybrough has constructed a three-part trade that essentially entails buying volatility in China, selling volatility in the U.S. financial sector, and tamping the risk of both positions with calls on the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX. – Barron’s, September 1
Bloomberg reports the Party has no stomach for market volatility before and during the party,
The China Securities Regulatory Commission has ordered local brokerages to mitigate risks and ensure stable markets before and during the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade leadership congress next month, according to people familiar with the matter. The CSRC has also banned brokerage bosses from taking holidays or leaving the country from Oct. 11 until the congress ends, the people said. The regulator didn’t immediately reply to a faxed request for comment. – Bloomberg, September 12
We wonder if the Party planners knew they would begin on the eve and meet through the 30th anniversary of the 1987 U.S. stock market crash?
Global Macro Monitor 