Today’s special congressional election in Pennsylvania’s 18th could move markets, and we doubt it is central to traders radars. Trump won this district by over 20 percent in 2016.
The Democrat, Conor Lamb, has pulled ahead in the latest poll and owns the momo on his side. The prediction markets are giving him a 65 percent probability of winning.
We sense a potential blow out, and markets could then begin to worry about a “Giant Blue Wave” coming in November ergo impeachment and corruption hearings in the next Congress, and the end of the Trump agenda.
It should be priced but nothing ever is in a momentum market.