Looks like a giant downhill slalom.
It reminds me of the Federal Reserve and all the overpaid, over-educated PhDs who, in the past 10 years, have always started with a strong forecast that they believed MUST be true given their Keynesian and monetarist biases and then steadily lower their forecast growth/inflation/interest rate forecasts as the economy remained crappy and inflation low. They have done this for 10 Frigging years!! It’s no crime to be wrong, but it’s absurd to REMAIN wrong for 10 frigging years!! There are serious problems with their theories, problems with wholesale dollar funding, problems with”money” and with the economy. They can’t see what’s going on. They just try to cover-up or rationalize their ignorance by uttering that things are just “transitory” over and over and over. These people don’t know what they are doing. In fact, they are a laughing stock. In no way should these people have their hands on ANY lever of ANYTHING important. This goes for most government employees, which is why we desperately need to massively shrink the size of the Federal government including an elimination of the Fed Reserve. Now, they are making more mistakes by tightening and not realizing that we are still in a “depression” and possibly repeating the mistake that they made in 1937 when the Fed Reserve crashed the economy. So, in the past 30 years, these people juice the economy again and again creating massive bubbles then massive busts and the recoveries just keep getting weaker. After the next bust, which may be the worst since 1929, there may be no recovery at all (just considering the trend). I’m sure you can hear my disgust at this state of affairs.
Keep up the great blog! I really enjoy reading your posts!!
Thanks for comments, Gulf! I need to look at how they calculate the data. It won’t be long before we have real-time forecast based on total daily sales of the major box retailers, Amazon, and satellite images of cars in parking lots, trucks on the road, all fed into some AI black box I think inflation calculations are moving that way. MIT has a billion price project. See here: http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com/
Thanks, again, for reading.
I’m not an expert in these things, it seems credit card companies have real-time sales and price data.
GDP now is pretty good but I’ve seen their tendency to reset each quarter to some pie-in-the-sky forecast as if they are forecast hope of lift-off that never comes. Official Fed forecasts have been abysmal always showing improving growth and rising prices, but every time they are wrong —over and over again. And they have never seen a bubble. They have never seen a recession coming—that they cause. Could it be any worse? Nope.
If we got the government out of the statistics business and let the private sector innovate, we’d have real-time data and more accurate data at nearly free cost instead of it costing $billions now and more $billions later for pensions for our bloated armies of govt employees. Charles Biderman at Trimtabs used to go on about that. Once again, government is the problem.
OK, finished now! My blog: http://gulfcoastcommentary.blogspot.com/
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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
– Rudiger Dornbusch
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