Trump Says Unified Korea Could Happen

Do you think President Trump has consulted with President Xi about a unified Korea?

It is highly doubtful China will allow a unified Korea, one under Western influence.

Different Scenarios

Our best case scenario is the South and North move closer together, but also closer to China.  China’s influence and power in the region is on the rise while the U.S. is in decline.

Our base case is no “complete denuclearization”,  lots of happy talk,  some arms control and integration, including cross-border labor and travel between the North and South, and a slow positive trend moving away from the status quo.

Our low case (which has a much higher probability than the best case, in our opinion)  see here and scroll down to  Segue To Korea.   The upshot is the Trump-Kim summit ends in a complete debacle.

Why is Kim at the table?  Because he now has the nukes and delivery system.

Time to curb your enthusiasm for a Trump Nobel Peace Prize.

Don’t forget your history,

The history of Korean reunification as well as its division after World War II underlines the important role that China has long assumed in Korean affairs. Had Tang China not participated in Silla’s quest for unification, Korea would have been still divided after 668; and if Mao had not decided to send the People’s Volunteer Army to thwart allied offenses, then South Korea would have succeeded in absorbing North Korea since 1950. The key point here is that China holds a veto over Korean reunification, and any future South Korean administrations will have to heed China’s interests if Seoul ever seeks to annex the territory under Pyongyang’s control.   – The National Interest 

Black Swan Scenario

The Black Swan, and a positive one, is that the North Koreans revolt and “storm the wall” as the East Germans did in the early 1990’s, ending the cold war.   Democracy breaks out in Korea as the world slides toward autocracy.

Wouldn’t that be something?

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