Tail Event Day: -3.29% S&P500 and +1.7 bps 10-year Yield

Something is rotten in the U.S. bond market, which is irritating the stock market, to say, the very least.

Today’s 3.29 percent flop in the S&P500, coupled with a 1.7 bps rise in the 10-year yield, is very rare, and has only happened this century in the midst of a major stock market crash.

The S&P500 has declined 3 percent or more in just 1.42 percent (68) of the 4,781 trading days since October 1999, and the 10-yield has risen more than 1.5 bps during those 3 percent + drops in just 0.17 percent of the (8) trading days since October 1999.

No flight to “quality” as stocks have tanked, even with the record short in 10-year futures at an all-time high.  Bonds should have rocked on today’s 800 point decline in Dow Jones  Come on,  man!

Our Treasury market analysis seems to be playing out.   We suggest you read it.




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