GMM’s Pre Post-Mortem On The Midterm

Just a quick note on the midterms as we await for the full results.

The Lavender Wave (pink + blue) that we were expecting did materialize, though not as strong,  and swept the Republicans from the House.  Suburban and college-educated women came out big last night, and a record number of over 100 women were elected to Congress.

This will truly be the year of women flexing their political clout. – GMM

It looks the number of House seats lost will come in at around 37, which puts the 2018 midterm the third worst showing for a first-term post-war president, and worst for a Republican president.   It is 17 seats lower than what the presidential approval model predicted but certainly not an outlier.  See chart.

The pick-up of Senate seats by Republicans was historic,

It was the first time since the nation started directly electing senators in 1914 that a party has won control of the House without gaining seats in the Senate. – USA Today




Midterm Results In A General Election

As soon as the full results are in, we plan to overlay the midterm results into a general election framework based on votes from each Congressional district.    That is we will aggregate this data state-by-state and calculate the electoral college.

We have no idea how the data will shake out.  Stay tuned.

Midterm_ResultsNote:  The variance of the data points seems to increase the lower the presidential approval rating.  Got it, only three data points,  but indicates heteroskedasticity

This entry was posted in Politics, Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.