S&P500 Key Levels

Snoozefest until the FOMC on Wednesday.  Lots of Doji candles reflecting traders don’t wanna do jack all.  Volume running at about 90 percent of the 10-day moving average.

Market expecting no rate cut, though a 20 percent probability is not exactly zero.  It feels to us the market could be set up for some disappointment.  Expectations of three rate cuts by year-end seem excessive with 3.6 percent unemployment and 2 percent off all-time stock market highs.

The market needs a reality check here with respect to expected rate cuts and will be very sensitive to and looking for clues in the FOMC statement.

Key Levels

The S&P is having trouble at the key Fibo, 2900.95.  If that goes, the recent high of 2910.61 then off to new highs at 2954 plus.

On the downside, 2874 is a big number,  the 50-day moving average, and last week’s intraday low.   Going fishing tomorrow.



Expected_Fed Funds Rate


Expected_Fed Funds_probs



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