The Black Swan Chart Of 2020

CNN_Voter Turnout Poll

 

The surprising outcome of the 2020 presidential election may be,

OK, Boomer.  It’s time to pass the torch of leadership to a new generation.   

The younger generations dwarf the boomers in terms of sheer numbers but they have a habit of not voting.   They may be changing, however, as it did in the 2018 midterm.

If the CNN chart holds and plays out, the 2020 presidential election is going to be nothing less than stunning.    The pollsters are going to be way off the mark once again.

The national polls were pretty much spot on in 2016 with Clinton taking around 2-3 percent of the national vote.   Their models blew it by underestimating the state-level turnout rates of certain voting groups.  They hadn’t modeled such a rush of first-time voters coming out of Appalachia, for example.

79 Percent Increase In 18-29-Year-Olds In 2018 Midterm

Look at the charts that follow, which show younger voters, such as the 18-29-year-old cohort group increasing their turnout by 79 percent in 2018 versus the 2014 midterm, which, no doubt, helped contribute to the Blue Wave and the Democrats taking back the House in a big way.

Voter_Turnout_By Age

Source:  USEP

The 2016 election was also the first election where the younger generations eclipsed the number of boomer voters.

Pew_voters

If the CNN chart is even close to reality in November, there is going to be another huge surprise on the first Tuesday night in November.

America’s Two Roads Diverged 

It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in political science to figure out which way it will break.  We believe it’s pretty safe to say the governing class in Washington will have a lot less old white males at the same time next year.

Even The Russians Are Concerned 

The last time the U.S. had a 70 percent voter turnout rate in a presidential election was in 1900 when William McKinley beat William Jennings Bryan by 51.6 to 45.5 percent in the popular vote and 292-155 in the electoral college.

The Russian military, who interfered attacked the 2016 presidential election appears concerned about a large turnout and is gearing up.

Russia

The federal government warned state election officials Thursday it suspects Russia my focus on voter suppression as a means to interfere in the 2020 presidential election. 

The joint FBI and Department of Homeland Security document, obtained by CNN and marked For Official Use Only, is titled “Russia May Try to Discourage Voter Turnout and Suppressing Votes in 2020 US Election.”

It warns of three potential ways the Russian government “might seek to covertly discourage or suppress US voters from participating in next year’s election.”

Russia may try to recruit Americans to protests and intimidate voters, sow discord online within political parties and try to hack voter registration sites or knock them offline, the report warns.  –  CNN, Oct 2019

 

Voter Turnout Poll_1

Voter Turnout Poll_2

 

Brext_3

 

 

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3 Responses to The Black Swan Chart Of 2020

  1. Pingback: QOTD: Did Boomers Burn Down The House? | Global Macro Monitor

  2. rjones99 says:

    CNN news is fake, therefore its impossible to know if this data is valid or not.

  3. Wal Stir says:

    Blue Wave?

    Statistically, 2018 was just a fairly typical midterm – Google this Gallup article:

    “Midterm Seat Loss Averages 37 for Unpopular Presidents”

    “The president’s party almost always suffers a net loss of U.S. House seats in midterm elections. However, losses tend to be much steeper when the president is unpopular. In Gallup’s polling history, presidents with job approval ratings below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats, on average, in midterm elections.” … “History, then, is not on the Republicans’ side this fall, as President Donald Trump has a 40% job approval rating two months before the 2018 midterm elections.”

    For comparison, the Democrats lost 63 seats in Obama’s first midterm in 2010 plus another 13 seats in 2014 for a total midterm loss of 76 seats. Bill Clinton lost 52 in his first midterm 1994 but regained 5 in 1998 for a net loss of 47 midterm seats.

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