I came across the following analysis and Tweet from Plural Vote today.
Plural Vote is an independent, non-partisan, data-driven news site, run by Sean Le Van. We statistically analyze elections, current events, policy decisions, and legislation in order to get to the bottom of important issues relevant to our time.
Sean looks like a Whiz Kid and aspiring political scientist from Columbia University ready to give Nate Silver a run for his money or be absorbed by 538.
We believe we posted our conclusions first (no big deal) – an only eight electoral vote difference from Plural vote– with the same number of states won.
Plural Vote claims to have run 20K model simulations with updated search trends. We are a nit more parsimonious in our analysis.
We won’t take a victory lap, however, until about 3 AM on November 4th or walk into the Jackson Bar + Eatery to eat a plate of crow and humble pie.
We suspect a Blue 1980-ish outcome in the popular vote where Trump wins around 41 percent of the popular vote (close to where he is currently polling), which is about the same percentage as President Carter won, but wins a bit more than the six states than Carter did in the electoral college.
For example, if Trump loses Michigan (65% prob), Pennsylvania (61% prob), Arizona (54% prob), and Florida (47% prob) and manages to hold all the other 26 states he took in 2016, that puts him at 228 electoral votes, well short of the 270 needed for reelection.
It’s interesting Trump leads Biden in the head-to-head contract on PreditIt but the Dems are sightly favored to take the White House. The market pretty much is making the election outcome a toss-up.
Why is Biden trailing? He could get ill, for example, or step down and allow a brokered convention may to nominate Andrew Cuomo, which is now a 10 percent probability, for example. — GMM, April 13th
Have you revised this prediction given the Tara Reade sexual harassment controversy? Seems like it could neutralize any ‘likability’ advantage Biden has, or even force the DNC to ask him to step down.