COVID Deaths Could Be Almost 60% Higher Than Official Count

Here is something we suspected for some time and now has been measured by the FT analysts.

The noisier the data, it is best to focus on trends and not single data.

 

FT_Apr26

The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.

Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.

If the same level of underreporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.

To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 percent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.

In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease.  – FT

Death Curve

Two-thousand American deaths per day (7-day rolling average) are unacceptable even though the U.S. curve has flattened out.  That’s a 9/11 disaster happening every day on average.

FT_Apr26_2

New Case Curve

Wow, look at New Zealand and Australia.   Don’t think these curves are normalized to take into account the rate of testing differentials for each country.  Beware of that distortion.

FT_Apr26_3

 

 

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