You probably already know we are not a big fan of President Trump here at GMM, not because we are Democrats or Republicans, liberal or conservative, but it is our vehement disgust over his incompetence.  Of course, the COVID pandemic is not his fault but he is fully responsible for the country’s abject and relative failure to contain and control it.

The data speak in the following charts.  What is stunning about the latest upsurge is that it excludes the crisis in New York city that dominated the numbers in the first wave.  There. Is. No Excuse!

Face Masks As A Political Symbol

Nothing so absurdly sums up more the President’s incompetence and gross negligence, which has caused tens of thousands of undue deaths and protraction of the health and economic crisis, than his mixed messaging and politicizing something so simple as wearing a face mask.  Maybe not so mixed.

Mr. Bender: You’ve commented on Biden’s mask a few times, and a couple of reporters who wear masks. Do you view that as a protest of you? Do you feel like people wear masks to show their disapproval of you?

Mr. Trump: It could be, yeah. It could be. But it could also be they feel better about it. I mean, I’m okay with it. Look, I’m okay with it. But the mask is a double-edged sword and I see it. People come in, they’re talking through the mask for hours. They probably don’t clean them after, you know, they get a little cocky, right? Then they take the mask, they put their finger on the mask, and they take them off, and then they start touching their eyes and touching their nose and their mouth. And then they don’t know how they caught it.  — WSJ Transcript Of President Trump’s Interview, June 18th

Un-freaking-believable!  The President of the United States, folks.

The above data are normalized and take into account population size so no bullshit that the U.S. has a larger population or is testing more (look at death curve).

Heavy Political Cost

The American people are onto the President’s bungling of the crisis.  A president that shows strong and decisive bipartisan leadership during a crisis usually skyrockets in popularity.  I read somewhere, but couldn’t document it, that President Clinton was kind of disappointed he was never able to exhibit his true leadership skills because the country was never tested with a major crisis under his watch.

President Trump’s dithering, politicizing almost all aspects of the crisis, and flip-flopping are now extracting a huge political toll not only on his prospects for re-election but the Republican hold on the Senate.

Iowa Senate Seat Now In-Play

This was a real shocker as we clicked it on today.  Senator Joni Ernst was favored with an almost 70 percent probability to retain her Senate seat a little more than one month ago. Today, the market is pricing it at 50 percent probability.

The Democrats could be looking at a filibuster-proof Senate majority,  holding close to 60 Senate seats on January 1, 2021.  Stunning.