What’s The Probability Of This Event?

Incredible video. The Big Unit snares a seagull 20 years ago today.

Take a guess on the empirical probabliity? Let’s do a calcuation based on these assumptions:

  1. Very few other occurances of a picther nailing a bird. Let’s assume three in post-War era;
  2. Average pitches per game equal 200 per team;
  3. 158 games per year for each team. MLB season expanded to 162 games from 154 games in 1962;
  4. Average number of teams equal 25. Major league baseball currently has 30 teams, compared to 16 in 1960,
  5. Seventy years of data

And the probability is…..


0.00017168%

Passive Investment

I would invest — yes, investment given today’s market madness and new definitions as most trades are now prop bets — $2430 each year ($1 per game) to takedown the $582k payoff. Robinhooders may pay much, much more.

The trade is even tastier if it could be done with options to get the leverage.

Gotta be carefull of your counter-party has the capital to make good on the trade, however.

Get on it Vegas or Draft Kings (DKNG, up 481 percent over last year, btw). You think Steve Cohen, the new owner of the Mets, will begin making a market?

The theoretical probabilty of such an event? Call a physicist, that’s way beyond my pay grade.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.