Incredible video. The Big Unit snares a seagull 20 years ago today.
Take a guess on the empirical probabliity? Let’s do a calcuation based on these assumptions:
- Very few other occurances of a picther nailing a bird. Let’s assume three in post-War era;
- Average pitches per game equal 200 per team;
- 158 games per year for each team. MLB season expanded to 162 games from 154 games in 1962;
- Average number of teams equal 25. Major league baseball currently has 30 teams, compared to 16 in 1960,
- Seventy years of data
And the probability is…..
I would invest — yes, investment given today’s market madness and new definitions as most trades are now prop bets — $2430 each year ($1 per game) to takedown the $582k payoff. Robinhooders may pay much, much more.
The trade is even tastier if it could be done with options to get the leverage.
Gotta be carefull of your counter-party has the capital to make good on the trade, however.
The theoretical probabilty of such an event? Call a physicist, that’s way beyond my pay grade.