We’re providing a deeper dive into Friday’s payrolls report with the Top 50 industries with the fastest and slowest payroll growth. It’s still difficult to discern any new trends or secular shifts in the makeup of the payroll data. Most of the Top 50 industries with the highest growth in payrolls appear to be in those hit hardest by COVID.
However, the household data is a different animal with the fluctuating labor participation rates and what many call “the Great Resignation.”
Payrolls are still in bounce mode, but the 50 industries with the slowest jobs growth deserve a closer look and deeper analysis. Our priors are that many of these sectors experiencing job losses in such a strong labor are Woolly mammoths headed for the tar pits.
Lack Of Visibility
There is still is a lack of clarity and uncertainty in the labor market from the initial COVID shock, now complicated by the economic shock caused by the invasion of Ukraine.
The COVID shock hit the labor market with such brute force it is still traumatized almost two years after the first case was discovered in the United States.
Molecules Still Haven’t Stabilized
It reminds me of when I was a sophomore in high school. My brother threw a pencil and hit me square in the eye about a centimeter from the pupil.
Long story short, the eye contracted an infection, and it was touch and go for a while as to whether my vision would be fully restored.
I spent two weeks in the hospital and received daily treatments at my ophthalmologist for over a year. I also had to sit out the baseball season because my vision was too cloudy to be an effective hitter, even several months after the initial injury.
I asked the doctor why the eye wasn’t healing. He explained that it suffered such penetrating trauma that the molecules were still moving around inside the eye and it would take several more months to stabilize.
It was over a year before I could see clearly, and I still had trouble with the curve.
Ditto for the economy, ditto for the labor market.
Later today we will post who is bringing home the bacon by looking at the industries with the fastest growth in average hourly earnings. Wait for it.
Note that many industries are missing the February data as it takes more time to gather the more granular the sector.
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