Real Oil Prices Are 36 Below


We dedicate this one to CK, who sparked our interest.

The following chart illustrates the”real” oil price — the average monthly cash price of West Texas Intermediate Crude deflated by the Consumer Price Index. Indexed so that January 2000 = 100. 

At the Tuesday closing price, the real price of crude was 36 percent below its peak in June 2008, when speculation was rampant as it is today.

In other words, real crude oil prices would have to increase 56 percent from the Tuesday close to top its 2008 peak.  Surprised?

It behooves the regulators to increase the margin requirements on commodity futures, especially wheat, which, if it continues to march higher, will most certainly cause global food riots.


We Tweeted this out yesterday in response to reports that the Russians were warning of $300 per barrel crude prices.  

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