Monthly Archives: May 2022

True Confessions:  We don’t know, and neither does anyone else, including Chairman Powell and the FOMC.  What Is the Neutral Rate? The neutral rate is the theoretical federal funds rate at which the stance of Federal Reserve monetary policy is … Continue reading →

Since CK loved charts, we will honor her with a weekly (consistent as we can) chart series with addition of a few of our comments. 1. Crypto Crash  Rising speculative asset values that are not backed by production are inflationary … Continue reading →

What a sad commentary on our society at large, which, we infer is partially the result of the messy world the younger generations have inherited from the Boomers. GMM has been writing about the Clash of Generations for years. Generation … Continue reading →

The next big number on the downside for the S&P is 3838.79, which brings the first Fib retracement level of the secular bull market that began in March 2009 into play. It will get some attention. Watch that space.  

The U.S. Treasury released its TIC data this afternoon, which confirmed our priors that foreign central banks continue to sell off their Treasury holdings, down $98.4 billion in March and -$135.4 billion over the past 12 months.   Surprisingly, Japan was … Continue reading →

#CKStrong GMM will be going dark for a few weeks. Watch This Space We are waiting anxiously for Monday’s U.S. Treasury release of the TIC data, particularly the major foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. We are closely monitoring the foreign … Continue reading →

#CKStrong The U.S. budget deficit (12-month trailing) has fallen from almost 20 percent of GDP in Q1 2021 — most of which was indirectly financed by the Fed and an increase in Treasury bill issuance — to our estimate of … Continue reading →

#CKStrong Apple’s air pod revenues alone generated $23.05 billion in revenue during their 2020 financial year – this is more revenue than Twitter, Spotify and Square combined. It gives Netflix’s entire business a run for its money as well – … Continue reading →