2025: A Year in Review, in Charts

2025 delivered one of those market outcomes that looks implausible until the chart forces a second glance. In a year dominated by artificial-intelligence euphoria and a powerful 13 percent appreciation of the Euro, European banks—long dismissed as structural laggards—quietly staged a remarkable resurgence. The European bank index tracked in the charts below rose by more than 80 percent on the year, when the Euro appreciation is included, decisively outperforming Nvidia and challenging the prevailing assumption that U.S. mega-cap technology was the only place to be. This divergence highlights how valuation, policy normalization, and operating leverage can be just as important as narrative momentum.

It is important to note that the charts shown reflect price performance only and exclude dividends, meaning total returns for stocks were even stronger than depicted. Together, these visuals tell a story of rotation, surprise, and the enduring danger of extrapolating consensus too far into the future.

 

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