Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

The Great Repression: Freedom of Speech in the Bond Market

Posted on February 23, 2012 by macromon

We’re baffled anybody still looks to the U.S. bond market for signals of future economic activity, inflation, or even risk aversion.  Case in point is today’s 7-year bond auction, which CNBC’s Rick Santelli rated an eleven on a scale of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Economics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

IMF Still Sees Risk in Greece

Posted on February 23, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Greek bond swap brings new downgrades

Posted on February 22, 2012 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Current Housing Bust Much Worse Than Great Depression

Posted on February 22, 2012 by macromon

Great chart from the recently released Economic Report of the President.  We suspect the Great Depression housing bust didn’t have the government props to soften the blow as we do today,  which,  therefore, on a relative basis,  makes the current … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Housing | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Euro Fracture: Greeks Urged to Boycott German Products

Posted on February 21, 2012 by macromon

Keep this on your radar.   Ugly politics heighten deal risk. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Greek Credit Writedown! Finally…

Posted on February 20, 2012 by macromon

The just announced 2GB — Second Greece Bailout — is a misnomer.   We wouldn’t exactly call a deal where private creditors reschedule all maturing bond payments for the next ten or so years into a 30-year bullet with a 50+ … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Stratfor: Why is Tibet Important to China?

Posted on February 20, 2012 by macromon

Good stuff from Stratfor. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Geopolitical | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Euro Fracture: Reform Fatigue Increasing

Posted on February 19, 2012 by macromon

Political backlash and reform fatigue are Europe’s biggest risk over the medium-term, in our opinion,  and need to be monitored closely.  Politicians have yet to convince many of their constituents of TINA – There Is No Alternative. (click here if … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Monti taps the Church

Posted on February 17, 2012 by macromon

If the Monti is successful in reforming Italy, maybe he will be made Pope! (click here if video is not observable)

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Is the Fed ready for the bond market’s Arab Spring?

Posted on February 16, 2012 by macromon

We’ve updated our database of the Federal Reserve’s ownership of the U.S. Treasury coupon curve.  The resulting chart highlights a couple of interesting issues about its structure and holdings of outstanding notes and bonds. First, though nothing new, it shows … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments