Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

The Genesis of the Euro

Posted on December 8, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Say It Ain’t So, Mario!

Posted on December 8, 2011 by macromon

Very unfortunate timing of today’s ECB meeting as Mario Draghi poured cold water on providing a backstop for the distressed Eurozone countries.  It’s kind of like holding a press conference before playing a hand in a high stakes poker game.  … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

EU Leaders on the Hot Seat

Posted on December 7, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Curbing Our Enthusiasm, Increasing Our Bet…

Posted on December 7, 2011 by macromon

Moving closer to the EU Summit we are are curbing our enthusiasm and expectations of the substance of the deal but increasing our bet that it will be just enough to unleash the balance sheet of the ECB to backstop … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

House Prices Plunge in Chinese Ghost City

Posted on December 5, 2011 by macromon

Could this be part of the reason the Shanghai was the only major index we track that was down last week? (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Italy’s Unions Not Buying the Full Monti

Posted on December 4, 2011 by macromon

While the FT reports Italy’s new technocratic government has approved tough austerity measures and economic reforms, the country’s unions seem to be balking at the tough medicine.  Italy needs lots of deflation relative to other countries to become competitive and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Politics | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Four Horsemen of the Europocalypse

Posted on December 2, 2011 by macromon

Great ‘toon from the  Economist which we hope motivates the Eurocrats to get something done.   The U.S., U.K, and Japan should not be so smug and take warning as the Four Horsemen of the debt apocalypse will be coming their … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Spread Compression in Europe

Posted on December 1, 2011 by macromon

Not enough, surely some of it engineered,  but moving in the right direction.  Some of the move has been the rise in the German 10-year yield.   Look at the big move in France-Germany, now below 100 bps.  The big … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Oats-Bunds Tighter

Posted on November 30, 2011 by macromon

In case you haven’t noticed the France 10-year bond spread over German 10-years has come in big over the past few weeks.  Granted some of it is attributed to the rise in German bond yields, but tighter, nonetheless. (click here … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Dollar, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Is this Gold’s Moment?

Posted on November 30, 2011 by macromon

China’s move on reserve requirement and the global central bank liquidity facility should give a power boost to gold, in our opinion.  This really smells like the global Cen Banks are going all, and we mean ALL IN.  In fact, … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Gold, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , | 2 Comments