Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Spiegel: Germany’s Finances Not as Sound as Believed

Posted on November 22, 2011 by macromon

This will surprise many.  Der Spiegel reports that Germany’s fiscal management is not as “exemplary” as most perceive. …Last week, the suspicions of international investors reached the stable core of the euro zone. Investors embarked on a massive selloff of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Charts, Euro, PIIGS, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Rajoy’s rise as Spain slumps

Posted on November 20, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

China’s Credit Bubble

Posted on November 20, 2011 by macromon

Just a  follow up to our last post.  This chart from the IMF illustrates how China was able to skirt — in relative terms — the deep economic contraction by generating a huge expansion in domestic credit and increase in … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Chinese Export Outlook Grim, Could Spark General Slowdown

Posted on November 20, 2011 by macromon

The question is will China embark on another massive state led credit expansion to offset the decline in exports as they did in 2008-09?   We have our doubts. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Draghi: Where’s the Beef?

Posted on November 18, 2011 by macromon

ECB President, Mario Draghi, gave his first official speech outside the Eurozone’s  central bank and asked EU policymakers “where is the implementation” of past decisions to beef up the EFSF.    The ECB is in a difficult position and has to … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Angry Greeks: “EU, IMF Out!”

Posted on November 17, 2011 by macromon

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Consequences of Euro Debt Monetization

Posted on November 17, 2011 by macromon

As the pressure on ECB grows to step up its “bid of last resort” for European sovereign bonds, the folks over at Zero Hedge ask the very important question what are consequences if the ‘zone  resorts to massive debt monetization?    … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Dollar, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Hours of Work Needed to Buy An Ounce of Gold

Posted on November 16, 2011 by macromon

More great work from our friends at The Chart Store.  It now takes over 88 hours of work at the average hourly wage to buy an ounce of gold.   What an incredible increase in the relative price of gold and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Gold | Tagged , | 2 Comments

The Pain in Spain

Posted on November 16, 2011 by macromon

Our friends and former colleagues over at Macro Synergy Partners, a London based hedge fund, which is performing well this year,  really nails it on Spain.  Note this was written before the recent blowout in spreads. Spanish policy makers made … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Debt Diets & Riots: Euro Lose/Lose?

Posted on November 16, 2011 by macromon

Here’s an interesting take on the euro crisis from Russia Today.   BTW, hearing rumors that Germany is kicking around a Eurobond type structure, which skirts their constitutional constraints on increased lending to the ‘zone.  Just rumors. (click here if … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment