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Category Archives: Black Swan Watch
Rogoff on Euro Crisis: “Endgame…a wave of debt writedowns”
One of the best pieces we’ve seen on Europe’s debt crisis is Kenneth Rogoff’s, The Euro at Mid-Crisis, posted today over at Project Syndicate. He doesn’t hold back in criticizing how policymakers, excluding Angela Merkel, are deluding themselves and in … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Euro Crisis, European Deb Crisis, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
1 Comment
Chart of the Day: Euro’s Dead Cat Bounce
Our Chart of the Day is the Dead Cat Bounce in the Euro. The currency rallied on rumors of massive QE by the ECB to support the bonds of the PIIGS? Come on! QE of such size would drive the … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Euro, Europeand Debt Crisis, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk
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ECB About to PIIG Out on Bonds. Gold to the Moon.
Just a few short weeks after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble criticized U.S. monetary policy with his “with all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless” statement, the FT reports the ECB is contemplating expanding its sovereign bond purchase program. That … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged ECB, European Debt Crisis, Eurozone, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign Risk
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Where is Gold Headed?
In 1996, we visited the Bulgarian central bank at a time when the country was experiencing economic turmoil and a loss of confidence that the government could rollover its maturing debt. After a long discussion on the domestic economy and … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged ECB, Euro, Gold, Greece, Ireland, Italy, PIIGS, Spain
1 Comment
Euro Trashed!
Dennis Gartman (click here for video) said today the Euro has “almost terminal problems”and eventually “breaks apart” into a Northern Euro and Southern Euro. The currency broke its 200-day moving average against the dollar and looks headed to a very … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Euro, Eurozone Crisis, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign Risk
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Chart of the Day: PIIGS Bond Maturities
This is a major factor contributing to the Eurozone stress that just won’t go away. SpiegelOnline charts show the PIIGS must redeem bonds totaling over Euro45o BN in 2011, of which, Euro 128.3BN are Spanish Bonds and Euro264.6 BN Italian … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Soveign Debt, Sovereign Risk
1 Comment
Best Investment 2011: Default on Your Mortgage
It’s an absurd world. We have incentivized people to stop paying their mortgage and stay in the house as long as possible before eviction. The Wall Street Journal reports the average number of days since the average borrower in foreclosure … Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Banks to Sovereigns to Banks
Great chart from IMF showing feedback loop of Europe’s Sovereign Debt Crisis. A little busy, but stick with it.
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Banking Crisis, Sovereign Debt Crisis
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Run on German Safe Deposit Boxes? WTH?
The implosion of the Eurozone appears to be accelerating. But Germany? Come on! Yet Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes the crisis in the eurozone periphery is moving to the core as credit default swaps for German, French,and Dutch bonds have blown out … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Euro, Europe, Germany, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign Risk
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“Will the next fiscal crisis start in Washington?”
Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., writes in today’s Washington Post, Even as work continues to repair our financial infrastructure and get the economy moving again, we need urgent action to forestall the next financial crisis. I … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk
Tagged FDIC, Fiscal Crisis, Sheila Bair, Sovereign Debt Crisis
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