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Category Archives: Black Swan Watch
10-year Treasury Bond Rate At Key Resistance
We’ve posted several pieces on the Treasury market about the bond’s positive technicals versus poor fundamentals. The 10-year rate is now close to piercing through key resistance at 2.83 percent. It is difficult to fundamentally determine why rates are moving … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk
Tagged 10-year Treasury Bond, Interest rates, Sovereign Credit
2 Comments
Greenspan: High US Deficits Could Spark Bond Crisis
We are becoming more concerned that 2011 may be shaping up to be the year of the public debt crisis. Greenspan seems to share those concerns. The Hill writes, “Look, I think something equivalent to what Erskine Bowles and Alan … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Bond Crisis, Fiscal Policy, Greenspan, Ricardian Equivalence
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Merkel Blinks, Irish Bonds Rally
The panic in the European periphery eased a but as Irish bonds rallied sharply after finance ministers issued a statement that current debt would not be included in burden sharing in the event of a sovereign restructuring. The FT writes, … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Angela Merkel, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Irish Bonds, Largarde, Merkek, Sovereign Risk
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No Luck Be A Lady and The (Bad) Luck of the Irish
The Irish are caught in the middle of panicky capital flows and the loose rhetoric of European leaders. PM Brian Cowen tried to calm markets after comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested that not all national debt should be … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, News, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Cowan, European Sovereign Debt Crisis, Ireland, Merkel
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All Eyes on Portugal and U.S. Bond Auctions
After a yield spike of 40 basis points since the launch of QE2 (see chart below), the U.S. is due to sell $16 BN in 30-year bonds tomorrow. This is interesting in itself, but after a week of increased bond … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Credit, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk
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Quote of the Day: “Although insolvent, Ireland is still liquid…”
Morgan Kelly writes in today’s Irish Times, As a taxpayer, what does a bailout bill of €70 billion mean? It means that every cent of income tax that you pay for the next two to three years will go to … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, Sovereign Risk
Tagged ECB, Ireland, Sovereign Debt
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Chart of the Day: Sovereign Debt and Capital Flight
We thought this to be a very informative chart, which shows the percentage of a country’s sovereign debt held by domestic and foreign residents. In general, the more a country’s debt is held by foreigners the higher the risk of … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Fiscal Policy, News, Policy, Sovereign Risk
Tagged Greece, Ireland, Sovereign Debt
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Bank of Japan Outlines Nikkei ETF Purchases
After yesterday’s FOMC action and Ben Bernanke’s Op/Ed in the Washington Post essentially stating the Fed is targeting the stock market, we now get the Bank of Japan’s outline for asset purchases. Next week the BoJ begins buying Nikkei and … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Gold, Monetary Policy, Policy
Tagged Bank of Japan, Nikkei ETF Purchases, Statement on Monetary Policy
1 Comment
Beijing, China 2030 AD
What would Krugman think?
Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy, Policy, Politics
Tagged China, Commercial
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Sovereign Debt: Not So Risk-Free
Joseph Cotterill over at FT Aphaville has a great post on how some European corporate bonds are trading through their sovereigns. Not surprising it taking place in countries without access to a printing press to monetize deficit spending, Markit pointed … Continue reading
Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, Monetary Policy, Policy
Tagged Debt Crisis, EU, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt
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