Category Archives: Fiscal Cliff Monitor

Repressed Fear

Posted on December 19, 2012 by macromon

This nice chart comes to us from the  Leuthold Group via Bloomberg.   It illustrates that market fear or risk aversion is at its lowest levels since the 1980’s!  Yikes! The Leuthold Group constructs their Risk Aversion Index (RAI) with a … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Fiscal Cliff Monitor, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Angry Washington Elves Take Down Market, VIX spikes

Posted on December 19, 2012 by macromon

He’s an angry elf. – Buddy,  Elf Leave it to the politicos.   They were the windshield,  we, the bug today. Doesn’t seem like they are gonna move and get it done. The VIX was up almost 12 percent today, the … Continue reading →

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Washington Post: Fiscal Cliff Deal Near?

Posted on December 17, 2012 by macromon

Post reporter Paul Kane on the latest developments in the talks between House Speaker Boehner and President Obama and if a deal looks likely this week. (click here if video is not observable)

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Cliff Diving – Day 19

Posted on December 6, 2012 by macromon

Not much here. The markets continue to slowly grind higher on strong seasonals.   The S&P500 (SPY) gained 0.34 percent and the Russell was up another 0.16%.   Utilities were strong, financials up 0.32 percent, and the VIX basically flat. Employment number … Continue reading →

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Cliff Diving – Day 18: Can Kicks Back

Posted on December 5, 2012 by macromon

Lots of divergences today. The markets caught a bid on China’s Shanghai catching a bid from nowhere.   The Shanghai was up close to 3 percent and off a three year low,  which had the index down 11 percent for the … Continue reading →

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Cliff Diving – Day 17

Posted on December 4, 2012 by macromon

Not much happening x/ markets remain weakish. The big moves came in gold, down over 1 percent, and the VIX continues to move higher.  No panic yet as the Russell continues to outperform.  Concern?  Yes.  Panic?  Not yet. Apple couldn’t … Continue reading →

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Cliff Diving – Day 16

Posted on December 3, 2012 by macromon

December, the overall best month for stock performance, isn’t supposed to start like this! The S&P500 opened almost at its high of the day, traded through the 50-day moving average, got spanked  and commenced to sell off the rest of … Continue reading →

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Cliff Diving – Day 15 “…almost nowhere”

Posted on November 30, 2012 by macromon

Same old same old. Politician speaks, market sells off, shorts cover, market closes unchanged.  This is getting old. Boehner came out throwing flames today saying the negotiations are “almost nowhere” and calling the President’s opening offer not a “serious proposal”.  … Continue reading →

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Staring Down the Cliff

Posted on November 29, 2012 by macromon

Nice chart from the Economist laying out the impact of the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts to begin on January 1st if Congress and Administration cannot reach a compromise. (click here if chart is not observable)

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Cliff Diving – Day 14

Posted on November 29, 2012 by macromon

This market wants to rally. It certainly feels that way after yesterday’s trading — big downdraft at the open only to reverse and close up big and at the highs — coupled with today’s resilience after speaker Boehner’s negative comments.  … Continue reading →

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