Category Archives: PIIGS

Run on German Safe Deposit Boxes? WTH?

Posted on November 26, 2010 by macromon

The implosion of the Eurozone appears to be accelerating. But Germany?  Come on!  Yet Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes the crisis in the eurozone periphery is moving to the core as credit default swaps for German, French,and Dutch bonds have blown out … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Haircuts for Senior Bondholders in Irish Bank Package?

Posted on November 26, 2010 by macromon

This Irish Times is reporting the that EU-IMF are “examining” burden sharing for senior bondholders.   Several proposals are being discussed, but the major focus is on two ideas: 1) bank debt-for-equity conversions; and 2) option of providing fresh capital injections … Continue reading →

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Is Ireland’s Rescue Package a Veiled Bailout of the ECB?

Posted on November 23, 2010 by macromon

Not that it needs a one, but some in Ireland are starting to ask the question.   The European Central Bank exposure in Ireland is above €130 BN, a quarter of its book, and now wants its money back.  In the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

‘The Euro Was Equivalent of US’ Subprime Securities’

Posted on November 23, 2010 by macromon

This quote is from today’s Spiegel Online International, which has an excellent summation of what the German newspapers are saying about the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.   The leftist Die Tageszeitung writes: “Where earlier countries with small currencies like the Irish … Continue reading →

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Ireland Bailout Equal to $8.8 trillion US Equivalent

Posted on November 22, 2010 by macromon

The FT reports the Irish bailout package will total €80bn-€90bn, which is about 60 percent of the country’s $200 BN annual GDP.  Massive!   The FT writes, The bail-out is expected to total €80bn-€90bn and will include contributions from the UK … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Currency, Equities, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Post hoc ergo propter hoc

Posted on November 18, 2010 by macromon

Correlation = 1)  causality; 2) spurious; or 3) reverse causality?   You decide….. Source: Bond Vigilantes

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“This could break backs…economies toward bankruptcy”

Posted on November 15, 2010 by macromon

These were the words of Greek prime minister George Papandreou, speaking about Germany’s tough stance on burden sharing during his visit to Paris.   The fracturing of the eurozone appears to be accelerating, or, at best, the fault lines are beginning … Continue reading →

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California Creamin’ (the muni market)

Posted on November 13, 2010 by macromon

You think today was ugly in the equity market take a look at what is happening with, MUB,  the Municipal Bond EFT (see chart below).   The California Legislative Analyst’s Office released their state fiscal outlook on November 10th and projects … Continue reading →

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Merkel Blinks, Irish Bonds Rally

Posted on November 12, 2010 by macromon

The panic in the European periphery eased a but as Irish bonds rallied sharply after finance ministers issued a statement that current debt would not be included in burden sharing in the event of a sovereign restructuring.    The FT writes, … Continue reading →

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No Luck Be A Lady and The (Bad) Luck of the Irish

Posted on November 12, 2010 by macromon

The Irish are caught in the middle of panicky capital flows and the loose rhetoric of European leaders.   PM Brian Cowen tried to calm markets after comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested that not all national debt should be … Continue reading →

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