The Historic 17%/50-day Rally. What’s Next for S&P500?

Only twelve times in the past fifty years has the S&P500 experienced a 17 percent rally in just fifty trading days with the most recent peaking on November 5th.   This surprised us as it sure didn’t feel like we were in the midst of a historic rally.   If past is prologue, the table below illustrates what to expect into year-end.

Only once, in March ’98, did the rally stop at 17 percent and was down four days later, similar to the current market.  The S&P500 subsequently traded flat for the next thirty days.  The current rally has stalled and the news from Europe makes us a bit more cautious.  The levels to watch are 1204 and 1227.   The best case is for the S&P to correct 4-5 percent from here, which will set up for a nice year-end rally.  Stay tuned!

This entry was posted in Equities and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.