The Historic 17%/50-day Rally. What’s Next for S&P500?

Only twelve times in the past fifty years has the S&P500 experienced a 17 percent rally in just fifty trading days with the most recent peaking on November 5th.   This surprised us as it sure didn’t feel like we were in the midst of a historic rally.   If past is prologue, the table below illustrates what to expect into year-end.

Only once, in March ’98, did the rally stop at 17 percent and was down four days later, similar to the current market.  The S&P500 subsequently traded flat for the next thirty days.  The current rally has stalled and the news from Europe makes us a bit more cautious.  The levels to watch are 1204 and 1227.   The best case is for the S&P to correct 4-5 percent from here, which will set up for a nice year-end rally.  Stay tuned!

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