Only twelve times in the past fifty years has the S&P500 experienced a 17 percent rally in just fifty trading days with the most recent peaking on November 5th. This surprised us as it sure didn’t feel like we were in the midst of a historic rally. If past is prologue, the table below illustrates what to expect into year-end.
Only once, in March ’98, did the rally stop at 17 percent and was down four days later, similar to the current market. The S&P500 subsequently traded flat for the next thirty days. The current rally has stalled and the news from Europe makes us a bit more cautious. The levels to watch are 1204 and 1227. The best case is for the S&P to correct 4-5 percent from here, which will set up for a nice year-end rally. Stay tuned!
