Monthly Archives: January 2011

Quote of the Day: Euro Debt Crisis

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

“Europe is testing the limits of reactive incremental strategy … The laws of economics, like the laws of physics, do not respect political constraints.”  – Larry Summers at the World Economic Forum

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Quote of the Day, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Japan: Risk of Sovereign Interest Rate Shock – IMF

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

In the context of S&P’s recent sovereign downgrade of Japan we thought you’d be interested in this IMF piece published in October.  The basic thesis is that Japanese commercial banks have been the main buyers of JGBs over past few … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Chart of the Day, Economics, Japan, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Next Shock: Are We Better Prepared?

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

Here’s an interesting video from Davos.  Fareed Zakaria moderates a panel discussion on the next potential macro shock.  The panel includes JP Morgan’s CEO,  Jamie Dimon.  Go to 15 min 55 seconds into video and listen to Dimon’s brilliant response … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Demographics, Geopolitical, Video | Tagged , | Leave a comment

States of the Union: Califoreclosia, Creditcutt, & New Yoke

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

The Economist rips President Obama for failing to address the country’s real problems.   This week’s cover, just out, is very creative and quite amusing.  The Economist renames every state in the Union with a debt related pejorative.   This must … Continue reading →

Posted in Fiscal Policy, General Interest, State and Local Government | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Bulls Eat, Bears Eat, and Pigs Go Limit Up!

Posted on January 27, 2011 by macromon

The hits just keep on coming in the foods.  Futures Magazine reports, Hogs: April futures rallied limit-up on Wednesday. Traders are noting South Korean buyers will cram orders in quickly to get product in under the 60,000 tonne no-tariff limit … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Commodities, Geopolitical | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Comps of Doing Business in the G5 and BRICs

Posted on January 26, 2011 by macromon

The President spoke a lot about competitiveness in his State of the Union last night so we thought we’d do a little comparative analysis.  Sorry to throw so many charts at you but we think they’re a little more sexy … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, Charts, Economics, Japan | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Jerermy Grantham – Presidential Cycle and Career Risk

Posted on January 26, 2011 by macromon

Jeremy Grantham, who we really respect, weighs in on the Presidential Stock Cycle and career of risk of straying too far from the crowd and how it contributes to asset bubbles.  From his latest letter, So, where are we now? … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Whales | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Natural Gas, The “Widow Maker”

Posted on January 25, 2011 by macromon

Check out the long-term chart of natural gas from Managed Futures Today and you can see why they call nattie the “widow maker.”    Long periods without a trend will grind your capital into hamburger and drive you to drink.    … Continue reading →

Posted in Commodities | Tagged , | Leave a comment

PBS: How Severe Is Europe’s Intertwined Debt Crisis?

Posted on January 24, 2011 by macromon

The PBS NewsHour ran this piece tonight titled, How Severe Is Europe’s Intertwined Debt Crisis? Note how Iceland is rising as the model debtor and listen carefully for the “politics of bailouts,” “Germany does not have pockets deep enough to … Continue reading →

Posted in Currency, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Video | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Tracking the Presidential Stock Cycle and Decennial Chart Analogs

Posted on January 24, 2011 by macromon

Today we look at how the S&P500 is tracking the two chart analogs, which we wrote about at the end of last year.   We don’t “bet the ranch” on these, but we do know many smart people look at … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments