And watch ’em they’ll hit the road
And all be surfin’ soon
And when they catch a wave they’ll be
Sittin’ on top of the world
Catch a wave and your sittin’ on top of the world – Beach Boys
No political statement here, no wishful thinking, just inference from the data and our sense of the political mood of the country.
Recall, we did predict on the eve of the November 2016 election, Trump would win the electoral college and HRC the popular vote, based on analysis and not our personal partisan politics.
The biggest gender gap in American electoral history is also taking shape, with women saying they prefer Democrats by 58 percent to 33 percent, an eye-popping 25-point margin. – Vanity Fair, Semptember 12th
You did hear it here first,
Massive Lavender Wave Coming In November
We believe there will be a massive “lavender wave,” in the November midterms. Lavender is the color combination of pink and blue.
…In elections, women are also more likely to vote in higher numbers and have done so for decades. Women have cast between four and seven million more votes than men in recent elections.
Moreover, the revulsion toward the president among women has not only made them more likely to vote but has turned them into activists. Women are running for office this year in record numbers.
Recall it was the African-American women who put Doug Jones over the top in Alabama’s special U.S. Senate election against Roy Moore last year. Exit polls showed that 98 percent of black women supported Jones.
…Do the math, folks. Listen to the water cooler talk, read the cartoons. — Global Macro Monitor, August 5th
We suggest you give a careful read to yesterday’s Vanity Fair piece, GET OVER YOUR ELECTION-NEEDLE P.T.S.D.: THE BLUE WAVE IS REAL, AND IT’S A MONSTER.
It’s Not The Economy, Stupid
No level of the S&P or GDP growth is going to change the women’s vote from here until November. The die is cast, folks.
Trade Negotiations
The Canadians and Chinese surely have very astute political analysts. Why in the world would either government cut a deal with an administration that will effectively end on November 6th?
We expect nothing of substance to come out of the trade negotiations from now until election day. Unless, that is, President Trump caves on everything in order to declare victory, no matter how Potemkin or meaningless the deal is, just as his Korean and Mexican deals are.
Global Macro Monitor 