Nation [ethnic groups] will rise against nation [ethnic groups], and kingdom against kingdom. There will be great earthquakes, famines and pestilences in various places, and fearful events and great signs from heaven.  – Jesus of Nazareth

OK,  folks, we will lay it on the anvil.

We are not afraid of being wrong, which is often the case, as we have internalized the key to longevity is to cut your losses quickly.   That is the essence of being a trader.  Nobody knows the future but you need to act as if you do in order to have the confidence to pull the trigger.

Furthermore,  we don’t suffer the recency bias from being wrong in the November 2016 election and therefore not afraid and don’t have to hedge our analysis.   If we are wrong, we move on.  Punto!

If women and the young turn out in November,  we won’t be, however.

Our conclusions are not influenced by our partisanship (though always impossible to exclude all bias) and not wishful thinking  but positive analysis based on the data, recent trends, and probabilities, sprinkled with some political intuition.

BREXIT ain’ gonna happen.  The political extremes on both ends have “woke” the sleepy and complacent middle, women, and the young.

We believe you will see the results in the upcoming “November to Remember” midterms.

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve. — Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto (quote never confirmed)

A second vote on BREXIT is an uphill battle, but if the Trump administration gets “bitch slapped” in the November midterms the momentum and pressure for a new BREXIT vote will build, in our opinion.

Theresa May’s government has ruled out a second referendum on membership, saying it would be an undemocratic denial of the result of the June 2016 Brexit referendum, which voted 52-48 in favour of leaving. The main opposition Labour party also officially remains opposed, although Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit secretary, last month said the party had not ruled out supporting a new vote.   – FT

Young Voters The Key In The U.S. November Midterms

It’s all up to young voters turning out in November.  If they would have voted in the first BREXIT referendum, we wouldn’t be having half of  this conversation.

It has been estimated that only 36 per cent of people in the 18 – 24 year old category voted in the EU referendum. 64 per cent of young people did not bother to take themselves down to the polling station and place their vote  – Independent 

Gen Z

It does look like the youth are finally getting fired up, at least, in the States.

So far, the data point to a surge in political engagement, intention to vote and outreach between friends to encourage voting. Gen Zers may be voting for the first time, but they are certainly not new to politics.  – The Conversation

Millennials

The jury is still out on whether their older brothers and sisters, the millennials, will get off their arse and get to the polls.

In the 60+ age demographic, almost 90 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots, but, at the other end of the scale, only 25 per cent of millennials took the time to vote.  – Global News

Bad freaking citizenship, millennials.  Do they enjoy being slaves to their senior political taskmasters and enjoy laying down in the Clash of Generations?   Just askin’.

Indeed, if there is one sentiment that unites the crises in Europe and America it is a powerful sense of “baby boomers behaving badly” — a powerful sense that the generation that came of age in the last 50 years, my generation, will be remembered most for the incredible bounty and freedom it received from its parents and the incredible debt burden and constraints it left on its kids. – Thomas Friedman, NY Times

Moreover,  millennials have no right to complain the leadership of the Democratic Party is dominated by septuagenarians, octogenarians, and soon to be, nonagenarians.   Shut up and vote!

The Lavender Wave

We are expecting a Lavender Wave (pink plus blue) in the November midterm.  The die is cast with the women’s  vote,  now let’s see if the young show up.

The political arithmetic seems pretty simple to us.   Women and the young will Trump old white men, that is if they show up.

• Women vote in higher numbers than men and have done so in every election since 1964. In 2016, 9.9 million more women than men voted. Women have voted at higher rates than men since 1980. In 2016, 63.3% of eligible female adults went to the polls, compared to 59.3% of eligible male adults. Even in midterm elections, when voter turnout is lower among men and women, women vote in higher numbers and at higher rates than men.
• More women than men register to vote. Some 83.8 million women were registered to vote in 2016, compared to 73.8 million men.   –  Footnotes

The Young And The Left

Simple math.  Where are we wrong?

After the November to Remember,  EXIT the BREXIT will take center stage.

The political tectonics are about to shift, folks, and you heard it here first.

No Sugar Coating It

Our recommendation to the one percenters and the comfortably numb retired baby boomers, who have bequeathed to and saddled the younger generations with massive pension and public sector debt liabilities?

You better Wake The F&*k Up!  – Global Macro Monitor,  Feb. 20, 2018

By the way,  not priced.