Brexit: what would a second referendum look like? | The Economist

Getting closer to the inevitable, IMHO.  Labor is buying in.

Oh yes, you did hear it here (well, we pounded – pun intended – the table) first.

We still think cable trades to 1.35 into an announcement, then some big political volatility that will rock the casbah currency, but eventually moves to the higher end of a 1.40 handle as the remainers win in a landslide.   The simple demographics of death makes it almost inevitable folks, very similar to the political path in the States over the next few years as the old white guys fade away and “millennial socialism” ascends to power.

Of the 600,000 Brits who die annually, Kellner postulated an 80 per cent turnout, with two thirds voting to leave, which breaks down to 320,000 voting to depart the EU and 160,000 wanting to stay.

Meanwhile, 700,000 youngsters come of age each year. In the younger cohort, 65 per cent voted in the referendum, with 87 per cent voting to remain, suggesting each year sees Britain gain 395,000 remain voters and 60,000 leave voters purely by teenagers turning 18.  – Wired

Sterling is trading like an EM currency up almost 4 percent YTD.

Remember our Jan 3rd trade?

Taking cable right here at 1.2670 (March).   Stop at 1.2470.    Target 1.35.

Looking for positive BREXIT news: either Corbyn caves and supports a new referendum or soft BREXIT potential emerges.  We do recognize the risk of big volatility to the downside if the politics go sideways  – GMM, Jan 3rd

We’ve been in and out, which has been a mistake.

 

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